Thursday, 1 August 2013

Reflections about scenario planning #SP4Ed

I have fallen somewhat behind, but will reflect so long on what I have I have learned up till now. 

Scenario planning is a completely new field to me, so I find most of what I read in the course material  to be new.  Some new ideas include that scenario planning somehow relates to the the story line of a play. I find this suggestion very appealing because it immediately sounds less daunting. I remember reading that one creates a number of story lines - again very appealing.

Although it intuitively makes sense, scenario planning is not focused on the 'extreme' long term, for instance, 30 years. That makes sense to me, since change is taking place at such a rate today, that it nearly feels as one would waste your time by trying to plan so long ahead. 

It was mentioned in our course material that scenario planning 'captures the dynamic of change by placing today's reality within the context of tomorrows' possibilities'.  I also remember reading that it is an art.  

Something that was more familiar to me, is the idea that scenario planning is also known as contingency planning, referring to the idea that 'if this, then that'. Wayne also mentioned this in the video. 

Another aspect that I find appealing is the idea that scenario planning aims to make better use of the non-rational side of human nature. This corresponds to what we learn in psychology, namely that a lot of our behaviour is based on non-rational aspects.  It was mentioned that scenarios deal with the world of facts and the world of perceptions and indeed people tend to act on their perceptions of events and not necessarily the facts. Perceptions may play an essential role in change, since people may feel threatened.

Finally, I read that scenario planning is a strategic planning method that some organsations apply to make flexible long-term plans.